Climate – Models & Predictions

Models – Computers are great tools for helping you think,… just never rely on them to do the thinking for you.

Climate is a chaotic system with –

A small amount of knowns,
A large amount of maybes
An un-known amount of un-known’s.

How do you model something like that accurately ??

You can get any result you want from a computer model. Think ‘GIGO’ Garbage In, Garbage Out. In the end, it’s only the real world data that counts. Except it seems for climate ‘scientists’

Here’s Hadley Centres Prof. Chris Folland on the subject in 1992: “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” !!!!!

If engineers thought or worked like that nothing ( including computers ) would work.

These are the results of 102 ‘climate models’….compared to actual observations

Tropical Mid-Tropospheric Temperature Variations Models vs. Observations

From –

It’s impossible, as an engineer, to look at this graph and not rage at the destruction of science that is being wreaked by the inability of climatologists to say the three most important words in life: ‘we were wrong’.

Regarding the University of Alaska Fairbank’s ‘Parallel Ice Sheet Model’,

Dr.Andy Aschwanden, Research Assistant Professor said –

“We did a lot of work under the hood to make this model work.”

And VW did a lot of work under the hood in order to get their engines to pass EPA emission tests !! &

The idea that these chaotic model results can be used to produce a valid rational projection is beyond absurd.

If a model is unable to predict direct observations, then the parameters, variables, or basic theoretical concept must be wrong.

July 2013: The UK Met Office reluctantly agreed there had been a ‘pause’ / ‘hiatus’ in the predicted ‘Global Warming’ despite increasing CO2 levels.

Feb 2016: A group of climate modelers & scientists put out a new study finally confirming the 15-year “hiatus” in global warming. “There is this mismatch between what the climate models are producing and what the observations are showing,”

Canadian Climate Model CanESM Near-Surface Global
From – Friends of Science –

Winter 2013-14 prediction in the USA –

Farmers Almanac * – Severe cold and above average snowfall
NOAA – Above average temperatures, dry winter

Reality — record number of days below ZERO, record (or near record) snowfall totals
SCORE: Farmers Almanac — 1. NOAA — 0.

So much for “accurate scientific” models!!!!!!


How reliable are the climate models? – Mostly not very !!

From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

“low confidence, un-robust” IPCC AR5 text box 9.2

Explanation of why they are so bad-

The UN IPCC 2001 Report ( par 5) told us that Climate Prediction is Impossible-

“In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term predictions of future climate states is not possible”

The really funny thing is IPCC AR5 acknowledges that the climate models are erroneous, at least in the graphs of the Technical Summary. See here: AR5 Technical Summary, Box TS.3, pg. 64: & TS.14, pg. 87:

(You can read the IPCC Technical Summary yourself here: )

Yet we continue to make political & financial decisions based on computer muddles known to be wrong

why ??